Pete Alonso Faces Uncertain Future: Expert Predicts When Mets Star Will Decline!

Pete Alonso has been nothing short of electric in the early months of the 2025 MLB season, once again proving himself as the anchor of the New York Mets lineup. The 30-year-old slugger has come out swinging—both figuratively and literally—by batting .310 with a 1.011 OPS, 9 home runs, and 36 RBIs through mid-May. His presence in the heart of the order has been instrumental to the Mets’ status as one of baseball’s top teams.

And yet, even amid this dominant start, a bigger question looms in the background: When will Pete Alonso start to decline? According to experts and recent analysis, that moment may not be as far off as some fans hope.

The Power Behind the Bat

No one can argue Alonso’s offensive production. Since his record-breaking rookie season in 2019, where he smashed 53 home runs, Alonso has established himself as one of the game’s most dangerous right-handed power hitters. Across his seven years in the majors, he’s averaged 43 home runs per 162 games—an astonishing stat that puts him in elite company.

As of May 14, 2025, he’s on pace for yet another monster season. Beyond the traditional stats, advanced metrics also back up his dominance. His exit velocity remains among the league’s highest, and his barrel rate confirms that he’s still making elite contact.

But even with those numbers in mind, there’s a growing discussion among analysts about how long this level of performance can last, particularly given Alonso’s age and skill profile.

The Contract That Sparked the Conversation

Alonso re-signed with the Mets this past offseason on a two-year, $54 million contract that includes a player opt-out after the first year. It was a surprising deal—both in structure and length—for a player of Alonso’s caliber. Most expected him to seek a long-term commitment, possibly in the 5-7 year range.

However, the Mets reportedly hesitated to commit long-term, citing concerns over Alonso’s potential decline as he enters his early 30s. The shorter deal gives both sides flexibility: Alonso can test the market again if he has a big year, and the Mets aren’t locked into a massive commitment if his performance begins to slip.

That caution might be warranted, as highlighted in a recent analysis by Bleacher Report’s Joe Reuter, who projected how MLB’s top first basemen will stack up five years from now.

Bleacher Report Weighs In on Alonso’s Future

In his May 14 feature, Joe Reuter ranked the projected 30 best first basemen for the year 2030. Pete Alonso came in at No. 19—not bad for a player who would be 35 years old by then, but not among the elite either.

Reuter noted that while Alonso’s offensive numbers may carry him close to significant milestones like 400 career home runs, his lack of defensive value and athleticism could lead to a more sudden decline compared to other sluggers.

“Alonso does not provide much secondary value outside of what he does in the batter’s box,” Reuter wrote. “So it’s fair to wonder how well his game will age… His fall-off could be a drastic one once it comes.”

That line has sparked debate around the league. Is Alonso’s future production more fragile than it seems?

Is Pete Alonso One-Dimensional?

It’s true that Alonso is not a five-tool player. He’s a power-first slugger with limited speed and average defensive skills at first base. Unlike players like Freddie Freeman or Paul Goldschmidt, Alonso’s value doesn’t extend as much into areas like plate discipline, base-running, or gold-glove defense.

That doesn’t mean he’s replaceable. On the contrary, the Mets rely heavily on his bat. But it also means that if his bat cools off—even a little—his overall value could drop sharply.

This is the risk the Mets front office considered when negotiating Alonso’s contract. They see a superstar in the present, but they’re also wary of what age 32, 33, and 34 might look like.

History Is Mixed on Sluggers in Their 30s

Many of the game’s great power hitters have aged well into their 30s—Nelson Cruz, David Ortiz, and Albert Pujols come to mind. But others have seen steep drop-offs. Players like Chris Davis, Ryan Howard, and Mark Trumbo all had similar skill sets to Alonso and experienced sudden collapses in production once their bat speed declined even slightly.

Alonso’s supporters argue that his swing is compact and repeatable, and that his ability to hit to all fields gives him an edge. Critics point out that his aggressive approach and tendency to chase could hurt him as pitchers exploit weaknesses over time.

Mets Fans Divided: Enjoy Now or Plan for Later?

Among Mets fans, reactions to the discussion about Alonso’s future have been mixed. Some say that the team should ride the wave while he’s hot, push for a championship in 2025, and worry about tomorrow later.

Others believe the Mets should already be planning for life after Alonso, especially if he opts out of his contract next offseason and commands a long-term deal on the open market.

“If Alonso wants six or seven years, I’m not sure it’s smart to give it to him,” one fan posted on Reddit. “He’s a beast now, but if he falls off, it’ll happen fast.”

Still, others argue that Alonso’s leadership, work ethic, and connection to the Mets fanbase should count for something. He’s not just any slugger—he’s their slugger.

Alonso’s Mentality: Betting on Himself

What’s clear is that Pete Alonso isn’t worried. By agreeing to a shorter deal with a player option, he effectively bet on himself in 2025. If he continues at this elite pace, he could opt out, re-enter free agency, and seek a longer, richer contract while his value is peaking.

And that confidence isn’t misplaced. Alonso has always been fueled by doubt—whether it was questions about his defense, his ability to hit elite pitching, or his long-term durability. Each time, he’s responded with results.

He knows the talk is out there. He knows what Reuter wrote. And he probably doesn’t care.

“I’m focused on helping the Mets win,” Alonso said recently. “Everything else will take care of itself.”

A Defining Season Ahead

The 2025 season could be one of the most important years of Pete Alonso’s career—not just in terms of production, but in how he’s perceived. If he continues to rake and the Mets contend for a title, he’ll likely enter next offseason as one of the top free agents available.

But if he slows down—even slightly—the whispers of decline will grow louder, and so will the hesitation from teams considering a long-term deal.

For now, Pete Alonso is thriving, and the Mets are reaping the rewards. The warning signs may be on the horizon, but until they arrive, he remains one of the most feared hitters in all of baseball.

And if he has anything to say about it, his best days may still be ahead.