Miguel Oliveira achieved the best result for Yamaha – but this is his last chance.

Miguel Oliveira produced his strongest performance of the season at the Hungarian MotoGP, securing twelfth place at Balaton Park after a spirited ride from the back of the grid. It marked the Portuguese rider’s best finish since joining Pramac Yamaha at the start of 2025 and his first points since Mugello in June. Yet despite the encouraging result, Oliveira’s MotoGP career remains under serious threat, with reports suggesting Yamaha will replace him for 2026.

Oliveira’s Hungarian Fightback

Starting from a lowly 19th position, Oliveira carved his way through the pack with a steady and determined ride. The Pramac Yamaha rider benefited from the early chaos as his teammate Jack Miller crashed out on lap six, handing Oliveira the chance to climb further up the order. Later, when Fermín Aldeguer fell on lap 14, Oliveira found himself running in 11th place.

The Portuguese rider managed to hold his ground for much of the race, running close to Fabio Quartararo, who had served a long lap penalty earlier. Oliveira’s consistent pace kept him in contention, but the race took a cruel turn in the final laps.

The Decisive Mistake Against Ogura

In the closing stages, Oliveira came under increasing pressure from Ai Ogura on the Trackhouse Aprilia. The Japanese rookie, showing strong late-race pace, closed the gap and attacked Oliveira in the final two laps.

Oliveira attempted to defend his position, but on the penultimate lap, he braked too deep into Turn 5. The mistake forced him wide, allowing Ogura to slip through and demote Oliveira back to twelfth place.

Reflecting on the costly error, Oliveira admitted:
“I‘m sorry about the mistake on the penultimate lap that cost me 11th place. I knew Ogura was trying to catch me, so I started pushing hard to defend myself and not give him any chance. Unfortunately, at the braking zone into Turn 5 I ran wide, and he got past. A shame, but overall I‘m fairly satisfied with my race.”

Despite the late heartbreak, Oliveira remained positive, noting the progress made compared to his previous outings:
“After a few difficult races, I‘m back in the points, and on a track that, on paper, should have been tough for us, that gives me a boost. I did the best pace I could and tried to stay close to Fabio.”

Comparisons Within Yamaha

Oliveira’s twelfth-place finish saw him end just 3.5 seconds behind Quartararo, who salvaged tenth despite his long lap penalty. Directly behind Oliveira was Alex Rins, who finished 13th, the same margin adrift.

While not a standout result compared to the front-runners, Oliveira’s ability to run in close proximity to Quartararo was a small victory in itself. After months of struggling to find pace and consistency, the Hungarian Grand Prix offered him a glimpse of the form that once made him a multiple MotoGP race winner.

Praise from Pramac and Yamaha Management

The effort did not go unnoticed by his team. Pramac team director Gino Borsoi commended Oliveira’s performance, highlighting the consistency of his pace:
“A great result for Miguel, who recovered many positions and, more importantly, delivered a very consistent race with lap times close to those of the group ahead.”

Yamaha Racing managing director Paolo Pavesio echoed the praise, especially given Oliveira’s comeback from injury earlier in the season:
“Miguel achieved the best result of a very challenging season, following the serious injury he suffered in Argentina. I want to congratulate him for his resilience and for the hard work he has put into his return.”

Career Uncertainty Looms Large

Despite the positive words, Oliveira’s MotoGP career remains in jeopardy. Reports strongly suggest that Pramac Yamaha will not renew his contract for 2026, instead retaining Jack Miller alongside incoming World Superbike champion Toprak Razgatlioglu.

Oliveira has endured a difficult season, collecting only ten points from ten rounds—three of which he missed due to injuries sustained in Argentina. His current tally leaves him 23rd in the MotoGP standings, far behind Miller, who sits 17th with 52 points. The stark points difference has tilted Yamaha’s decision in Miller’s favor.

The Weight of Competition

Oliveira’s situation is further complicated by Yamaha’s evolving strategy for its rider lineup. With Razgatlioglu’s signing already confirmed, the battle for the second Pramac Yamaha seat came down to Miller, Oliveira, and potential Moto2 talents such as Diogo Moreira and Manuel Gonzalez.

Miller’s stronger results and extensive MotoGP experience gave him the edge, while Moreira’s decision to join LCR Honda removed one of Oliveira’s potential rivals but ultimately did not swing the balance back in his favor.

Yamaha’s management views Miller as a more reliable option for developing the brand-new V4 engine, set to debut at Misano. Oliveira’s inconsistent form and limited results in 2025 have left him exposed at the worst possible time.

Oliveira’s Strengths and Struggles

The Portuguese rider has long been regarded as one of the most talented and adaptable racers in the MotoGP paddock. His ability to win on different machinery—including KTM and Aprilia—demonstrated his skill and resilience. However, his Yamaha chapter has been marred by injuries, technical struggles, and a lack of rhythm.

His steady ride to 12th in Hungary showed flashes of his true ability, but the mistake against Ogura highlighted the fine margins that continue to define his results. With Yamaha looking toward the future, his modest improvements may not be enough to justify a contract renewal.

What Comes Next for Oliveira?

Should Oliveira be released at the end of the 2025 season, the big question remains: where does he go next? While a full-time MotoGP seat may be difficult to secure given the current rider market, several possibilities exist.

• World Superbikes: Like many MotoGP riders before him, Oliveira could transition to World Superbikes, where his experience and adaptability would make him an instant contender.

• Test Rider Role: Yamaha or another manufacturer could offer him a testing role, leveraging his feedback skills while keeping him connected to the MotoGP paddock.

• Wildcard Appearances: Depending on opportunities, Oliveira could remain active with occasional MotoGP appearances while exploring other racing disciplines.

Regardless of the path, Oliveira’s talent ensures he will not be short of offers, though whether they come at the highest level of MotoGP remains doubtful.

Conclusion: A Career at the Crossroads

Miguel Oliveira’s twelfth-place finish in Hungary was a step forward, showcasing his determination and ability to fight back after setbacks. It was also a reminder of the qualities that once made him one of MotoGP’s most promising race winners. Yet the result may not be enough to alter Yamaha’s course.

With Jack Miller set to remain at Pramac Yamaha alongside Toprak Razgatlioglu in 2026, Oliveira’s MotoGP career hangs in the balance. His tally of ten points compared to Miller’s 52 paints a clear picture of Yamaha’s likely decision.

For now, Oliveira can take pride in his Hungarian performance, using it as motivation to finish the season strongly. But the writing appears to be on the wall: unless he produces a remarkable turnaround, his time as