Can Oliveira withstand another blow? Topuria is aiming at his biggest weakness.

Charles Oliveira has been in wars—vicious, unforgettable wars. He’s dropped, recovered, submitted, and stunned the MMA world time and time again. But with a new predator circling—the undefeated Ilia Topuria—fans and analysts are beginning to ask a terrifying question: Can Oliveira take another clean shot?

Oliveira has made a legendary career out of rising from the canvas and forcing opponents into his world of submissions and scrambles. But Topuria, with his laser-sharp striking, icy control, and ruthless finishing instinct, isn’t like the rest. He’s not just coming to beat Oliveira—he’s aiming directly at Oliveira’s greatest vulnerability: that glass-like chin that many believe is on the brink of cracking for good.

Charles Oliveira’s Biggest Weakness: The Chin That Keeps Getting Tested

Since moving up to lightweight, Charles Oliveira transformed from submission specialist to violent all-rounder. But there’s one constant that continues to haunt him: he gets hit. And he gets dropped—a lot.

From Michael Chandler to Dustin Poirier, from Justin Gaethje to Islam Makhachev, Oliveira has taken big shots. While he’s managed to recover and win most of those wars, the pattern has become too familiar.

“No matter how slick his jiu-jitsu is,” said former UFC fighter Chael Sonnen, “you can’t keep getting dropped and expect to rule forever.”

It’s not just the volume of knockdowns—it’s the clean nature of the shots that land. Oliveira often walks forward with his chin slightly raised, relying on pressure and intimidation rather than defense. That’s a style that works against those who crumble under chaos. But against Ilia Topuria, that could be a fatal flaw.

Ilia Topuria Is Not Here to Brawl—He’s Here to End

Topuria has been methodical and terrifying in his rise to the top. At 15-0, he’s a finisher with clinical efficiency, not just power. His striking isn’t wild like Gaethje’s, nor is it volume-based like Holloway’s. Topuria strikes to punish and finish, often with just a few perfectly-placed shots.

When he faced Josh Emmett, he didn’t rush. He broke him down. When he faced Bryce Mitchell, he didn’t flinch on the ground—he submitted a BJJ black belt. When Topuria targets an opponent’s weakness, he goes in like a surgeon, not a berserker.

“Oliveira’s chin is there,” Topuria said in a recent interview. “It always has been. The others let him recover. I won’t.”

This isn’t empty trash talk—it’s a cold statement of strategy. Topuria knows exactly what he wants to exploit.

Oliveira’s Recovery Is Legendary—But Is It Diminishing?

Credit must be given where it’s due: Charles Oliveira is one of the most durable men in UFC history, not because he avoids damage, but because he survives it. Against Chandler, he was nearly out. Against Poirier, he was rocked badly. Yet he turned both into statement wins.

But there’s a growing concern among fans and experts alike—how much longer can his body take it?

Fighters eventually slow down. Their timing fades. But worse, their ability to absorb punishment fades first. That’s often the last warning before a dramatic fall from the top.

Oliveira is only 34, but with over 40 professional fights, and numerous knockdowns in his recent bouts, the damage is stacking up. The question is no longer “can he survive another round?”—it’s “what happens when his body says no?”

Topuria’s Patience Is the Perfect Storm for a Tired Chin

Unlike fighters who try to blitz Oliveira out of fear of the ground game, Topuria will likely do the opposite: stay patient, stand over Oliveira, and force the Brazilian to work from a disadvantaged position.

Remember what Islam Makhachev did. After dropping Oliveira with a sharp right hand, he didn’t panic. He avoided the traps, stayed composed, and submitted Oliveira on the ground, something almost unthinkable before it happened.

Topuria might not use the same method, but his patience, timing, and composure resemble Makhachev’s approach more than any other striker Oliveira has faced.

“I won’t follow him to the ground recklessly,” Topuria said. “But I will make him stay down.”

That type of mentality means no chaotic grappling scrambles, no rush to finish—and a longer time for Topuria to expose a vulnerable Oliveira.

Oliveira’s Offense Still Terrifies—but Will He Be Allowed to Fire Back?

Let’s not forget: Charles Oliveira is still one of the most dangerous finishers in the UFC. If Topuria gets reckless, gets caught in a scramble, or hesitates too long in the pocket, he could find himself on the wrong end of a rear-naked choke or a guillotine.

Oliveira thrives in transition. He thrives when opponents get overconfident.

But Topuria has shown remarkable control of range and timing, even under pressure. He knows when to disengage, when to reset, and when to drop the hammer.

This fight is not just about who’s more violent—it’s about who makes fewer mistakes. And lately, Oliveira has been making more.

What Happens If Oliveira Gets Dropped Again?

Fans are asking the uncomfortable question out loud: What happens if Charles gets dropped again?

Here are the likely scenarios:

• Scenario 1: He recovers again and shocks the world. He’s done it before.

• Scenario 2: Topuria stays composed, lets Oliveira flail, and finishes with brutal ground-and-pound.

• Scenario 3: Oliveira stays down, hoping to bait a grappling exchange, but Topuria avoids it, turning the fight into a prolonged, humiliating beatdown.

No matter the scenario, the psychological damage may already be done if Topuria floors him early.

“If Oliveira hits the mat again, and realizes this guy won’t engage him down there, he might mentally check out,” said UFC analyst Laura Sanko.

The Stakes Couldn’t Be Higher

This isn’t just a fight—it’s a career crossroad for both men.

• For Charles Oliveira, it’s about proving he’s still elite, still durable, and not one step away from collapse.

• For Ilia Topuria, it’s about announcing himself as not just a featherweight king, but a two-division destroyer.

There’s also the specter of legacy. Oliveira is fighting to protect it. Topuria is fighting to build his.

And hovering above it all is that chin, that ever-so-slight tilt of Oliveira’s head when he throws, that millisecond of exposure that Topuria is training to exploit.

Final Thoughts: Topuria’s Strategy Is No Secret—And That’s Terrifying

Everyone knows what Ilia Topuria is going to do: test Oliveira’s chin. He’s not hiding it. He’s not disguising it. He’s telling the world:

“I’m going to hit him. Clean. And I want to see if he gets back up.”

In combat sports, when a fighter knows your greatest weakness and still walks into the cage with full composure, it means one thing: they already believe they’ve won.

Can Charles Oliveira withstand another blow?

We’ll find out soon.

But one thing is clear—Topuria isn’t swinging wild. He’s aiming at legacy.