Sterling seizes the moment: Ortega is out of shape ahead of the game. What will Sterling do to end the game early?

On August 23, fans around the world will tune in for a showdown that could redefine the featherweight division: Brian Ortega vs. Aljamain Sterling, set for a grueling five-round catchweight battle at 153 pounds. Yet, beyond the highly anticipated co-main event, the real intrigue lies not only in their contrasting styles—but also in the unexpected chain reaction sparked by Ortega’s near collapse at weigh-ins. Will Ortega’s depleted condition cost him the fight, or can Sterling’s experience and grappling dominance seal the victory? With betting lines shifting dramatically and experts divided, this isn’t just a fight—it’s a high-stakes test of resilience, skill, and will.

Introduction

The UFC world is buzzing with anticipation as Brian “T-City” Ortega and Aljamain “Funk Master” Sterling are set to collide on September 23 in a matchup that feels like destiny. This isn’t just another fight—it’s a battle between two men whose careers have been defined by resilience, reinvention, and relentless pursuit of greatness.

For Ortega, this bout represents redemption. The featherweight contender has endured brutal wars against Max Holloway and Alexander Volkanovski, fights that showcased his toughness but raised questions about his ability to win at the elite level. Now, after setbacks and injuries, Ortega is determined to prove that he still belongs among the top contenders.

For Sterling, this is about validation. After years of dominance at bantamweight—holding the belt, defending it against top names, and proving doubters wrong—he now steps into the featherweight division. This fight is his chance to show that his wrestling-heavy style and suffocating pace can translate against bigger, stronger opponents.

When the cage door closes on September 23, fans can expect a clash of styles: Ortega’s sharp boxing and dangerous submission game versus Sterling’s relentless grappling, control, and cardio. It’s a matchup that could determine not only the future of the featherweight division but also the legacies of both men.

Fighter Profiles and Career Paths

Brian Ortega – The Submission Artist with a Warrior’s Spirit

Brian Ortega’s story is one of grit and perseverance. A Mexican-American fighter from Los Angeles, Ortega made his name with spectacular submission finishes. Early in his career, he racked up guillotine chokes, triangle armbars, and rear-naked chokes with an ease that stunned opponents. His reputation as one of the most dangerous submission artists in UFC history is unquestionable.

But Ortega is more than just a grappler. Over the years, he has developed sharp boxing skills under coach Rener Gracie. His uppercut knockout of Frankie Edgar remains one of the most iconic highlights in featherweight history. Despite suffering punishing losses to Max Holloway and Alexander Volkanovski, Ortega’s ability to endure punishment and keep fighting has only strengthened his aura as one of the UFC’s toughest fighters.

Still, questions linger: Can Ortega keep up with relentless pressure fighters? Can his body withstand another grueling war? And most importantly, can he adapt against someone like Sterling, who thrives on controlling the pace?

Aljamain Sterling – The Funk Master’s Reinvention

Aljamain Sterling enters this fight riding a wave of momentum. The former bantamweight champion has long been underestimated, yet his résumé speaks volumes. Sterling dethroned Petr Yan, defended his title multiple times, and showcased elite grappling skills that frustrated elite strikers. His back control and body lock are among the best in MMA, and his cardio allows him to maintain relentless pressure.

At bantamweight, Sterling often relied on size and strength advantages. Moving up to featherweight means he’ll face bigger fighters—but Sterling insists that his style isn’t dependent on size. Instead, it’s his technique, creativity, and persistence that make him dangerous.

This fight against Ortega is crucial for Sterling’s career. If he wins, he instantly establishes himself as a contender in a new division. If he loses, critics may claim he was only successful at bantamweight due to size advantages.

Technical Breakdown

Striking

• Ortega’s Edge: Ortega has sharper hands and knockout power. His straight punches and counter uppercuts could punish Sterling if he overcommits on takedowns. Ortega is also taller and longer, giving him reach advantages in exchanges.

• Sterling’s Approach: Sterling’s striking has improved, but it’s largely a tool to set up takedowns. His kicks and volume striking can frustrate opponents, but he rarely looks for knockouts. If the fight stays on the feet, Ortega has a significant edge.

Grappling

• Sterling’s Edge: Sterling’s chain wrestling, back control, and ability to hold opponents down are his bread and butter. Once he locks in a body triangle, opponents have struggled to escape.

• Ortega’s Danger Zone: Ortega thrives in chaos. Even if taken down, he can lock in submissions from guard. His guillotine and triangle choke remain lethal weapons. The danger for Sterling is that one sloppy entry could mean a quick tap.

Cardio and Pace

• Sterling’s Advantage: Few fighters in the UFC can match Sterling’s pace. His ability to shoot repeatedly, control against the cage, and constantly threaten back control breaks opponents mentally.

• Ortega’s Concern: Ortega has shown tremendous heart, but his cardio sometimes falters in long, grinding fights. Against a pace-pusher like Sterling, this could become a deciding factor.

Fight Scenarios

Ortega Lands the Big Shot (KO/TKO)

Sterling has been hurt before, and Ortega’s boxing is underrated. If Ortega can keep the fight standing, his power shots could end the night early.

Probability: 30%

Sterling Dominates With Control (Decision)

Sterling’s most likely path: grind Ortega down with takedowns, cage control, and back riding. His pace could overwhelm Ortega, leading to a decision win.

Probability: 40%

Ortega Snatches a Submission

If Sterling gets lazy with a takedown entry, Ortega’s guillotine or triangle could instantly end the fight. His opportunistic submission game is always live.

Probability: 20%

Sterling Finds a Submission of His Own

Though less likely, Sterling’s back control could eventually lead to a rear-naked choke. If Ortega gets trapped in a body triangle, escape becomes difficult.

Probability: 10%

Prediction

After examining their styles, skills, and histories, the prediction tilts slightly in favor of Aljamain Sterling. His relentless wrestling, suffocating control, and superior cardio give him the tools to neutralize Ortega’s striking and submission threats.

Prediction:
Aljamain Sterling defeats Brian Ortega via unanimous decision (48-47, 49-46, 48-47).

Still, this is a fight where one mistake could flip the script. Ortega’s power and submissions mean that Sterling must fight with extreme discipline.

Betting Odds and Fan Expectations

Early betting odds slightly favor Sterling (-150), with Ortega at (+130) as the underdog. Bettors see Sterling’s wrestling as the safer path, but Ortega’s submission game makes him a live dog.

Fans, however, are divided. Ortega’s cult following loves his warrior spirit, while Sterling’s critics continue to underestimate his effectiveness. This fan tension only adds to the drama of September 23.

Conclusion

The clash between Brian Ortega vs. Aljamain Sterling on September 23 is one of the year’s most compelling UFC matchups. Ortega brings knockout power, slick submissions, and a reputation for toughness. Sterling counters with relentless pressure, elite grappling, and championship-level cardio.

For Ortega, this fight is about redemption—proving that he can still compete with the best. For Sterling, it’s about validation—showing that his dominance extends beyond bantamweight.

Regardless of the outcome, fans are guaranteed fireworks. Will Ortega shock Sterling with a submission or knockout? Or will Sterling impose his grinding style and secure another signature win?

On September 23, all questions will be answered inside the Octagon.