Sonic Speeds Ahead Domestically, but Mufasa Rules Globally with a Roaring $180M Debut
The festive season at the box office promises a thrilling showdown as two major blockbusters, Paramount’s Sonic The Hedgehog 3 and Disney’s Mufasa: The Lion King, go head-to-head. With both films targeting different demographics, audiences are in for a cinematic treat this Christmas.
Sonic Speeds Ahead in the U.S., While Mufasa Roars Globally
Sonic The Hedgehog 3 is expected to dominate the domestic box office, raking in an impressive $50–$60 million during its opening weekend. Industry insiders suggest the gap between the two films could stretch by as much as $10 million in Sonic’s favor.
However, Mufasa: The Lion King is poised to claim the global crown, with projections of an outstanding $180 million debut worldwide. Disney’s film will roll out across major international markets starting Wednesday, including France, South Korea, Germany, and Australia, before expanding to China, Japan, and other regions by Friday.
Domestically, Mufasa will launch in 4,000 theaters, with premium formats like IMAX and 3D sharing space with Sonic. Previews for Mufasa kick off Thursday afternoon, and the film has already garnered $7 million in presales, though Sonic is reportedly surpassing this pace.
What to Expect from Mufasa: The Lion King
Directed by Oscar-winner Barry Jenkins, Mufasa offers a visually stunning and emotionally resonant tale. The prequel explores the origins of the future lion king, following Mufasa as an orphaned cub who befriends Taka, a lion from a royal lineage. The two must join forces to escape a formidable enemy, but their bond faces severe tests along the way.
Critics on Rotten Tomatoes have awarded the film a 61% fresh rating, highlighting its breathtaking animation and heartfelt storytelling. Mufasa is expected to resonate most strongly with female audiences across all age groups, aligning with Disney’s core demographic.
Sonic’s Fanbase Brings the Speed
On the other hand, Sonic The Hedgehog 3 is racing toward a younger, more action-driven audience, appealing to teens, kids (ages 6–10), and nostalgic gamers aged 17–34. The film will open in 3,800 domestic theaters, with fan events starting Thursday afternoon.
Though Sonic 3 won’t debut internationally until Christmas Day, the franchise has proven its staying power. Despite a slightly lower opening for the 2020 film ($58 million) compared to the 2022 sequel ($72.1 million), both films enjoyed strong legs, earning $148.9 million and $190.8 million domestically, respectively. Paramount expects Sonic 3 to eventually surpass its predecessors in lifetime gross.
The Global Context: Disney’s King Holds the Crown
Internationally, Disney’s The Lion King brand remains a formidable force. The 2019 Lion King live-action reimagining enjoyed a $191.7 million domestic debut, securing its spot as the 10th highest opening weekend in U.S. history.
While the current market, especially in China, remains less stable than in 2019, Mufasa is still expected to mirror the success of other recent holiday blockbusters. Comparisons include films like Wonka ($71M international opening), Jumanji: The Next Level ($122.8M), and Aladdin ($115.3M).
Post-Holiday Box Office Boost
Both Mufasa and Sonic 3 are poised for a substantial surge after Christmas, as holiday breaks give moviegoers more opportunities to hit theaters. For Disney, the festive season aligns perfectly with the family appeal of Mufasa, while Sonic’s high-energy adventure ensures it will capture audiences of all ages.
With Mufasa roaring to life globally and Sonic speeding ahead domestically, the final days of 2024 will see an exhilarating box office race. Both films cater to distinct audiences and bring their unique flavors to the holiday season, ensuring that the biggest winners this Christmas will be the moviegoers themselves.
As the rivalry heats up, one thing is clear: the battle for box office supremacy between Sonic the Speedster and Disney’s majestic lion will leave a lasting mark on Hollywood’s holiday season.
