Oliveira Predicts Topuria vs Tsarukyan Will Be a Hell of a Fight

Ilia Topuria may be the newly crowned UFC lightweight champion, but already the MMA world is buzzing about the question: who will step into the octagon to challenge him first? Based on the official rankings, the most logical opponent is the No.1 contender Arman Tsarukyan — a relentless, high-pressure grappler who has made it clear he wants the belt.

However, there’s an interesting wrinkle. Despite Tsarukyan’s status as the top-ranked challenger, Topuria himself has shown little enthusiasm for the matchup. Instead, he’s expressed interest in facing Paddy Pimblett or Islam Makhachev, fights he views as more appealing either from a hype or legacy standpoint. The UFC, though, has a way of setting the fights fans and rankings demand, and this one could be a classic in the making.

Charles Oliveira’s Unique Perspective

Former UFC lightweight champion Charles Oliveira has a rare vantage point. He’s faced both Topuria and Tsarukyan inside the octagon, giving him firsthand experience with their strengths and weaknesses. In a recent interview with Thunderpick, Oliveira was asked to predict how a potential Topuria vs. Tsarukyan clash might play out.

“Man, that’s a fight between a solid grappler and a guy with really good striking,” Oliveira explained. “I think Arman is a very dangerous dude, super tough. But honestly, I think Topuria has a better shot at winning. Still, it’s going to be a hell of a fight.”

That assessment carries weight. Oliveira is one of the most experienced fighters in UFC history and understands how different styles interact at the highest level. His belief that Topuria’s striking could trump Tsarukyan’s grappling is based on seeing both men’s skill sets up close.

Why This Matchup Is So Intriguing

The idea of grappler vs. striker is one of MMA’s oldest and most thrilling storylines. Arman Tsarukyan has built his reputation on being one of the most suffocating wrestlers in the lightweight division. His relentless pressure, chain wrestling, and top control can drain opponents both physically and mentally. When Tsarukyan gets a fighter to the mat, it often feels like there’s no escape — and his ground-and-pound, especially elbows, can end a fight quickly.

On the other hand, Ilia Topuria is an exceptional striker with knockout power in both hands. His crisp boxing, precise counters, and ability to read his opponent’s movement make him a constant threat on the feet. While he’s capable on the ground, his preference is clear — keep the fight standing and let his hands do the talking.

Oliveira’s Breakdown: Grappling vs. Striking

Oliveira’s experience leads him to believe that Topuria’s striking has the edge in this matchup. “Ilia has proven that strong striking can outweigh strong grappling,” he noted, a reference to Topuria’s ability to shut down takedown attempts and punish opponents during exchanges.

That’s not to say Tsarukyan doesn’t have a path to victory. If he can close the distance early, secure a takedown, and establish top control, he could grind out rounds or even find a stoppage via ground-and-pound. The key question is whether he can get close enough to Topuria without eating fight-changing punches.

The Champions’ Preference and UFC Politics

Interestingly, Topuria has been open about his preference for facing fighters like Paddy Pimblett — a charismatic figure who generates massive fan interest — and Islam Makhachev, the current lightweight kingpin with an aura of dominance. From a promotional perspective, these fights would be huge draws, but from a merit-based standpoint, Tsarukyan has the strongest claim to the next title shot.

The UFC often balances rankings with marketability. While it’s possible they could give Topuria one of his preferred opponents, the competitive integrity of the division suggests that Tsarukyan is the most deserving. As of now, the fight is expected to take place before the year ends, though nothing is officially confirmed.

Stylistic Keys to Victory

For Arman Tsarukyan:

• Pressure early: Tsarukyan cannot allow Topuria to find his range. The longer the fight stays at boxing distance, the more dangerous it becomes for him.

• Chain wrestling: One takedown attempt likely won’t be enough. Tsarukyan’s ability to mix shots, trips, and clinch work will be crucial.

• Control on the ground: If he gets Topuria down, holding him there will be essential. The champion is explosive and can get back to his feet quickly.

For Ilia Topuria:

• Maintain range: Using footwork and angles to stay off the fence will help him avoid takedown attempts.

• Counterpunching: Tsarukyan will have to commit to forward movement, which creates openings for Topuria’s sharp counters.

• Defensive grappling: Even if taken down, Topuria must stay calm, work back to his feet, and avoid giving up dominant positions.

Career Trajectories Heading In

Arman Tsarukyan (22-3 MMA record) has been on a steady climb since entering the UFC. His only losses have come against elite opponents, and he’s responded to each setback with improvements in his game. Known for his relentless training schedule, Tsarukyan’s twice-a-day regimen has kept him in peak condition, ready for any challenge.

Ilia Topuria (17-0 MMA record) has yet to taste defeat. His combination of power, speed, and fight IQ has made him a nightmare matchup for anyone at lightweight or featherweight. The move to lightweight has only added to his momentum, and his championship win solidified his status as one of the sport’s fastest-rising stars.

The Fans’ Perspective

From a fan’s standpoint, this fight checks all the boxes. It has a compelling stylistic contrast, the intrigue of an undefeated champion, and the unpredictability that comes when elite-level talents collide. Whether you lean “Team Takedown” or “Team Knockout,” there’s no denying this is a matchup with high drama written all over it.

Some fans believe Tsarukyan’s wrestling will overwhelm Topuria. Others think the champion’s striking is too polished and powerful to be neutralized. That uncertainty is what makes the fight so appealing — and why Oliveira’s prediction adds an extra layer of intrigue.

Honorable Humor

It’s easy to imagine some light-hearted scenarios in the buildup to this fight:

• If Tsarukyan wins: He might update his UFC walkout playlist to “Can’t Touch This.”

• If Topuria wins: Expect a cheeky post-fight Instagram caption like, “Still undefeated… thanks for the cardio, Arman.”

• If Oliveira watches: He’ll probably just sit in the front row with popcorn, nodding and saying, “Told you it’d be a hell of a fight.”

Maybe the UFC could even sell special fight night T-shirts: one side reading “Trust the Takedown” and the other “Bank on the KO.” Fans could swap at halftime… if MMA had a halftime.

Because no matter who gets their hand raised, one thing is certain: the real winners will be the fans — unless the fight ends in 30 seconds, in which case the winner will be whoever remembered to hit record on the TV.

Conclusion

Charles Oliveira’s take on a potential Ilia Topuria vs. Arman Tsarukyan fight has sparked conversation across the MMA world. His belief that Topuria’s striking gives him the edge doesn’t diminish Tsarukyan’s danger level — it simply highlights how razor-thin the margins are at the championship level.

Whether the UFC books this bout or goes in another direction, the clash of styles and personalities makes it a must-watch. If it does happen before the year ends, fans should expect an intense, high-paced battle where every mistake could be the last.

As Oliveira put it best: “It’s going to be a hell of a fight.”