Oliveira Pushed Into the Shadows, Jack Miller Shines Brightly with a Dream Position at Pramac

The MotoGP paddock is buzzing with tension following the official confirmation that Toprak Razgatlioglu will join Pramac Yamaha in 2026. The Turkish sensation’s move into the premier class, while exciting for fans, creates a ruthless reality—one of the current riders, Miguel Oliveira or Jack Miller, must go.

With only one seat available beside the reigning World Superbike Champion, and both contenders offering contrasting strengths and weaknesses, the big question now is: Who will Yamaha choose to keep—Miller or Oliveira?

Toprak Razgatlioglu Joins MotoGP: The Deal Is Done

The long-anticipated move is finally official—Toprak Razgatlioglu will race in MotoGP with Pramac Yamaha starting next season. The 29-year-old Turkish rider, after dominating the World Superbike Championship and maintaining ties with Yamaha throughout his WSBK career, is making the leap many expected years ago.

This marks a major strategic step for Yamaha, which continues its desperate search for competitiveness in MotoGP. Razgatlioglu is seen as a high-risk, high-reward bet—bringing spectacular riding, flair, and a proven winning mentality, but no top-class experience yet.

His signing, however, forces Pramac to part ways with either Jack Miller or Miguel Oliveira, creating a high-stakes internal dilemma.

Jack Miller vs Miguel Oliveira: A Battle for Survival

At first glance, Jack Miller appears to have the edge. The Australian has managed better results in 2025, including several solid top-10 finishes and one particularly impressive performance at the Sachsenring, where he narrowly missed the podium. While these aren’t headline-making achievements, they are enough to make a strong case in a year where Yamaha’s machinery is far from competitive.

Miguel Oliveira, on the other hand, has had a much more turbulent campaign. The Portuguese rider has struggled with consistency, largely due to injuries sustained early in the season—notably after the Argentine GP, which left him sidelined for multiple rounds. Only now, during the Aragón GP, does he seem to be returning to full physical form.

Unfortunately, time may be working against him.

Performance Metrics: Miller “Favors” the Numbers, Oliveira “Penalized” by Context

Looking purely at on-track results, Miller has delivered more points and better finishes. He’s not blowing the doors off the field, but in comparison to a limping Oliveira, he has the statistical advantage.

Yet context is king in MotoGP, and Oliveira’s case is far more nuanced. While he has struggled to find form, especially on the underdeveloped Yamaha M1, his past success—particularly during his KTM years—proves he’s capable of winning races when equipped with the right tools.

Moreover, in Aragón, Oliveira was even outpaced by wildcard rider Augusto Fernández, a tough pill to swallow for a full-time factory-backed pilot. Still, he wasn’t alone in his struggles; Fabio Quartararo and Álex Rins also suffered, pointing to larger issues within the Yamaha package.

Contract Dynamics: Oliveira Holds Leverage

One of the most crucial factors playing in Miguel Oliveira’s favor is the nature of his contract. Unlike Jack Miller, Oliveira has a direct factory contract with Yamaha, which includes an option for extension through 2026.

This gives Oliveira a layer of job security that Miller lacks. It also means Yamaha would need to buy out or restructure Oliveira’s deal to remove him from the Pramac squad. That added complexity could tip the scales in his favor—at least temporarily.

Jack Miller, by contrast, has no formal contractual extension and is reportedly on the radar of Honda for a potential switch to the World Superbike Championship, where he could enjoy better machinery and potentially a more prominent role.

Yamaha’s Perspective: A Test Rider Role for Oliveira?

Yamaha’s management, especially technical director Max Bartolini, has spoken highly of Miguel Oliveira’s precision and feedback ability, noting that the Portuguese rider possesses “unique characteristics” compared to the rest of Yamaha’s lineup.

This has sparked rumors that Oliveira could be repositioned—not necessarily kicked out—perhaps moving to a factory test rider role akin to Dani Pedrosa’s current position at KTM. With Yamaha’s testing program in dire need of overhaul, this could be a strategic pivot that retains Oliveira’s expertise without occupying a race seat.

It’s not ideal for Oliveira, who surely wants to remain a full-time rider, but it may preserve his Yamaha ties while he regains form.

Is Miller Heading to WSBK? Honda Circles with Big Offer

Multiple insiders have revealed that Honda is pursuing Jack Miller with a lucrative offer to race in World Superbikes in 2026. This would reunite Miller with Japanese machinery and allow him to compete for wins again—a tempting scenario for a rider who’s beginning to contemplate his career’s twilight phase.

If Miller accepts Honda’s offer, Yamaha’s dilemma solves itself. Oliveira stays at Pramac, Razgatlioglu takes the second seat, and Yamaha retains the technical input it values. The only uncertainty remains Miller’s willingness to exit MotoGP voluntarily.

At 30 years old, Miller still has gas left in the tank, but the appeal of winning again and potentially dominating in WSBK might prove irresistible.

Oliveira’s Decline or Mismanagement?

Despite the cold statistics, Miguel Oliveira’s downturn in results may have more to do with Yamaha’s chronic mismanagement than his own form. Since joining the project, he’s been forced to adapt to a radically different bike philosophy than he was used to at KTM and Aprilia.

He also suffered injuries during a pivotal development window in early 2025, meaning he had limited input in refining the latest M1 updates. His time on the bike, while critical, has been fractured by crashes, physical rehab, and underwhelming sessions.

Insiders suggest that a fully fit Oliveira on an improved package could still be Yamaha’s best bet for long-term consistency, especially when paired with the explosive talent of Razgatlioglu.

What’s the Ideal Outcome for Yamaha?

From Yamaha’s perspective, the most logical scenario looks like this:

• Toprak Razgatlioglu enters MotoGP with massive fanfare and a winning pedigree.

• Miguel Oliveira transitions to a supporting yet valuable role, either remaining in Pramac or moving to the test team.

• Jack Miller accepts the WSBK offer, bowing out of MotoGP with dignity and a promising new challenge ahead.

This solution allows Yamaha to retain both its prized rookie and its most experienced technical mind while managing egos, contracts, and performance expectations.

Public and Fan Reaction: A Divided Crowd

Fans online remain split over who should stay. Oliveira has a passionate following, particularly in Portugal, where he’s viewed as a national hero. Many blame his poor performance on Yamaha’s flaws rather than personal shortcomings.

Miller, meanwhile, remains a paddock favorite for his personality, humor, and fighting spirit. His loyal fanbase in Australia is vocal, and his candid nature has always earned him respect.

But MotoGP is a results-driven sport, and as of today, Miller is outscoring Oliveira in nearly every performance metric.

Conclusion: One Rises, One Falls—But Which One?

As Toprak Razgatlioglu prepares to make his long-awaited MotoGP debut, the spotlight shifts to the fates of Miguel Oliveira and Jack Miller. The decision will likely come down to a complex matrix of performance, contracts, injuries, development input, and team chemistry.

On paper, Jack Miller “deserves” the seat. On paper, Miguel Oliveira has more long-term value. What Yamaha ultimately decides will signal their broader strategy: do they bet on short-term results, or invest in rebuilding from within?

For now, both riders are on the edge of falling, and only one will survive the Pramac shuffle.