Kyle Larson’s Secret Weapon for Phoenix Victory – Can Anyone Stop Him?
Heading into this weekend’s NASCAR Cup Series race at Phoenix Raceway, all eyes were on the option tire that Goodyear introduced. The biggest question among teams, analysts, and fans was how the option tire would perform compared to the primary tire over long runs.
To provide some clarity, drivers were given a 45-minute practice session to test both tire types. With all the cars on track at the same time, the session generated a large amount of data, offering insights into which drivers had the best feel for each tire compound.
It quickly became evident that the option tire had a significant speed advantage over the primary tire. Even after thirty laps, the option tire remained the faster choice. As a result, most drivers are expected to end the race using the option tire, as it offers superior grip and performance.
This means that the best bet for Sunday’s Shriners Children’s 500 at Phoenix Raceway should be a driver who can perform well on both tires, but with a stronger emphasis on the option tire. After analyzing the data, Kyle Larson stands out as the strongest contender for the win.
Why Kyle Larson Stands Out as the Best Bet
Before the race weekend, my model identified three top contenders with a double-digit percent chance of winning:
- Christopher Bell
- Ryan Blaney
- Kyle Larson
At the time, Bell and Blaney were the clear top two, but after practice, Larson’s stock rose significantly. His performance in the practice session positioned him as one of the most dominant drivers heading into the race.
One of the most important factors in my analysis is long-run speed, and Larson excelled in this area. He posted the best twenty-five-lap and thirty-lap averages on the option tire. This is crucial because the option tire will be the preferred choice for most of the race, making long-run consistency a key advantage.
Some skeptics might argue that Larson’s lap times were aided by track conditions, as he set his times early in the session. While there is some truth to this, his gap to Ryan Blaney was still over five percentage points faster based on my FLAGS metric. Even more impressively, Larson was six percentage points faster than the next driver to start on option tires, Chase Briscoe.
These numbers indicate that Larson was not just benefiting from track conditions but was genuinely one of the fastest drivers in the field.
How Larson Mastered Both Tire Types
While Larson’s performance on the option tire was the biggest takeaway from practice, another key factor was his ability to adapt to the primary tire. Since he started the session on the option tire, he only switched to the primary tire halfway through practice. This put him at a disadvantage compared to most other drivers, who began their runs on the primary tire when track conditions were at their best.
However, despite this disadvantage, Larson was still the fastest driver among the six cars that tested the primary tire later in the session. He led in FLAGS metric rankings on the primary tire, finishing six percentage points ahead of Carson Hocevar.
At first glance, Larson’s ranking on the primary tire might seem underwhelming, as he finished twenty-seventh overall. But context is everything. A total of thirty-one out of thirty-seven drivers started practice on the primary tire, giving them an inherent advantage due to faster track conditions.
The fact that Larson managed to set the best lap times on both the option and primary tire is a strong indicator that he has one of the best setups for the race. His practice performance is far more relevant than his qualifying position, meaning he remains a top contender for the win despite a mediocre qualifying run.
The Final Verdict: A Strong Contender for Victory
Heading into Sunday’s race, Larson ranks third in my predictive model. His chances of winning are slightly above twelve percent, and after practice, he has closed the gap to Christopher Bell and Ryan Blaney.
This is a crucial point because NASCAR races are rarely won based on qualifying performance alone. The ability to run consistently fast laps on race day is far more important than where a driver starts. Larson has demonstrated that he has the speed to compete for the win regardless of his starting position.
With the option tire expected to be the dominant choice, Larson’s strength on long runs gives him a major advantage over the competition. If he can maintain this pace throughout the race, he will be in a prime position to challenge for the win in the closing laps.
Hendrick Motorsports: A Team on the Rise
Beyond Larson’s individual performance, his team, Hendrick Motorsports, has also shown significant improvement. For the first time this season, all four Hendrick Motorsports drivers finished inside the top ten. This is a major confidence boost for the team as they move into the next stretch of races.
As the leading Hendrick Motorsports driver, Larson secured a third-place finish at Phoenix Raceway. His final laps featured an intense battle with Christopher Bell and Denny Hamlin, making for one of the most thrilling finishes of the season so far.
After the race, Larson acknowledged the strength of his car and his team’s progress, stating, “It was good to finish third.”. This result reinforces the idea that Hendrick Motorsports is gaining momentum and could become a dominant force in the upcoming races.
Final Thoughts: Bet on Larson at Phoenix
If you are looking for a smart betting choice for Sunday’s Shriners Children’s 500, Kyle Larson is the best option.
His combination of long-run speed, adaptability to different tire compounds, and strong race pace make him one of the most dangerous drivers heading into the weekend.
Key reasons to bet on Larson include:
- Best long-run speed on the option tire
- Fastest driver among late-session primary tire runners
- One of the top three in race-winning probability
- Proven ability to close races with strong finishes
With the option tire likely to decide the outcome, Larson has positioned himself as a major threat to take the checkered flag. His team is improving, his car is performing at an elite level, and he has the racecraft to make a winning move when it counts.
