How Alexander Zverev’s Shock Rio Open Defeat Shakes Up Jannik Sinner’s No. 1 Chase

Alexander Zverev’s quest to dethrone Jannik Sinner as world No. 1 suffered a major setback at the Rio Open, where he crashed out in stunning fashion. The German star, who had a golden opportunity to make up significant ground in the ATP Rankings, squandered a commanding lead in the quarter-finals against world No. 86 Francisco Comesana.

Losing 6-4, 3-6, 4-6 after leading 4-1 in the final set, Zverev’s frustration was evident. A match that should have been routine turned into a nightmare, leaving the door open for Carlos Alcaraz to challenge Sinner’s hold on the top spot.

Zverev’s Costly Collapse: An Opportunity Wasted

The Rio Open was a rare chance for Zverev to make a statement. He was the highest-ranked player in the draw following withdrawals from Holger Rune and Lorenzo Musetti, making him the overwhelming favorite. Yet, instead of capitalizing on this relatively weak field, he let the moment slip through his fingers.

The German himself admitted his disappointment after the match, saying, “Better level than Buenos Aires, but unfortunate to finish the tournament like this. Shame because I was in a winning position.” That’s an understatement. Zverev was practically holding the match on a silver platter before Comesana flipped the script, reminding everyone why mental resilience is just as important as raw talent.

His Rio Open defeat means Zverev remains at 8,135 points in the ATP rankings, still 3,195 points behind Sinner. A title in Rio would have earned him an additional 400 points—certainly not enough to overtake Sinner but enough to build crucial momentum heading into more competitive events.

The Sinner Equation: A Forced Time-Out

Meanwhile, Jannik Sinner is not even actively competing but remains in a comfortable position. With his controversial ATP suspension keeping him off the court until May 4, the Italian is set to lose 1,600 points but will still return with 9,730. That means both Zverev and Alcaraz need to step up if they have any hope of taking the throne before Sinner’s comeback at the Italian Open.

Zverev, however, has already stumbled. Instead of reducing the deficit, he left Rio with nothing but frustration and missed opportunities. The irony? Had Sinner been playing, Zverev might have pushed himself harder. But knowing the top spot is technically within reach seems to have made him more reckless rather than more determined.

Alcaraz’s Role: The Unpredictable Contender

While Zverev fumbled, Carlos Alcaraz also failed to capitalize on Sinner’s absence, losing in the Qatar Open quarter-finals. He remains at 7,510 points—still behind Zverev—but his aggressive, fearless style makes him a wildcard. Unlike Zverev, who often struggles with pressure moments, Alcaraz thrives on big challenges.

It’s not just about points—it’s about attitude. Zverev, at 27, still talks about wanting to be No. 1, yet time and again, he falters at key moments. Meanwhile, Alcaraz, four years younger, has already won two Grand Slams and carries himself like someone destined for greatness. If anyone is going to catch Sinner in his absence, it’s more likely to be Alcaraz than Zverev.

The Points Battle: How Zverev Can Still Make a Move

Despite the Rio disappointment, the world No. 2 still has a mathematical chance of overtaking Sinner before May—if he performs flawlessly in upcoming tournaments. Here’s what needs to happen:

• Zverev must earn 2,446 points before the Rome Masters in May.

• Alcaraz, who currently has 7,510 points, needs 3,721 points to surpass Sinner.

• Both players are defending significant points (Zverev: 850; Alcaraz: 1,400), meaning they must overperform just to break even.

The upcoming Mexican Open in Acapulco, an ATP 500 event, is crucial for Zverev. If he flops there too, it might be time to stop talking about chasing the No. 1 ranking and start worrying about keeping his No. 2 spot.

The Mental Game: Why Zverev Keeps Falling Short

For all his talent, Zverev’s biggest issue remains mental toughness. His ability to choke in crucial moments is becoming a pattern rather than an exception. Whether it’s a Grand Slam final, a Masters event, or even an ATP 500 match he should be winning comfortably, he finds a way to collapse.

This is the difference between great players and all-time greats. Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer, and even Sinner in his young career have all shown the ability to seize the moment and thrive under pressure. Zverev, meanwhile, continues to let golden chances slip.

Does he truly believe he can be No. 1? Or is he comfortable simply being in the conversation?

Conclusion: The Race for No. 1 is Still Sinner’s to Lose

While Zverev’s Rio Open loss was a shocking upset, it’s not necessarily surprising. If anything, it reinforces the idea that he’s not yet ready to be the best in the world. With Sinner sitting out, the title race should be wide open—but instead of taking advantage, Zverev stumbled once again.

Alcaraz, meanwhile, remains a lurking threat, capable of making up massive ground quickly if he regains form. But even with these challengers in play, Sinner still holds the edge despite being physically absent from the tour.

The next few months will define whether Zverev is a genuine threat or just another talented player who couldn’t break through. One thing is certain: if he continues to let opportunities slip, he won’t just miss out on No. 1—he might lose his grip on No. 2 as well.