Khabib believes Topuria only has a 20% chance of defeating Tsarukyan.

When it comes to assessing the lightweight division, few opinions carry as much weight as that of Khabib Nurmagomedov. The undefeated former champion, who retired at 29-0, has often spoken about the future of the division he once dominated, and his latest take is causing a stir among MMA fans. Khabib has openly stated that he believes current lightweight champion Ilia Topuria has only a 20% chance of beating rising contender Arman Tsarukyan if the two meet inside the Octagon.

The discussion surrounding a potential showdown between Topuria (17-0 MMA, 9-0 UFC) and Tsarukyan (23-3 MMA, 9-2 UFC) has been heating up ever since Topuria captured the lightweight title. While analysts and fans have debated the matchup, Khabib’s sharp analysis lays out why he thinks Tsarukyan poses the most dangerous threat to the undefeated Spanish-Georgian champion.

Khabib’s Breakdown: Why Tsarukyan Is the Tougher Fighter

In an interview with Kamil Gadzhiyev, Khabib explained that Tsarukyan’s skill set neutralizes Topuria’s strengths. Known for his elite wrestling, relentless pace, and increasingly polished striking, Tsarukyan has steadily climbed the ranks, defeating fighters like Beneil Dariush and Mateusz Gamrot. Khabib believes that Tsarukyan’s ability to control distance and mix wrestling with striking makes him a nightmare matchup for Topuria.

“I don’t see Topuria having a chance,” Khabib said. “Arman fights too well at range against strikers. He keeps his distance well, works better with his kicks, and now Arman has improved a lot. He has footage that he can study and analyze.”

Khabib also pointed out that Tsarukyan’s size, physicality, and fight IQ give him the edge. Standing nearly 10 centimeters taller than Topuria and cutting from a naturally larger frame, Tsarukyan would likely enter the cage on fight night as the heavier and stronger athlete. For Khabib, that physical advantage, combined with wrestling dominance, tips the scales dramatically.

Wrestling: The X-Factor

One of the most notable aspects of Khabib’s analysis is his emphasis on wrestling as the deciding factor. Topuria, despite his flawless record, has largely fought opponents who are striking specialists. His most notable wins came against Alexander Volkanovski and other striking-heavy fighters who rarely relied on grappling.

Khabib explained: “Name at least one of his opponents who uses even 20 percent wrestling – not 50, just 20. He’s only fought strikers. Volkanovski doesn’t wrestle, the others don’t wrestle.”

By contrast, Tsarukyan is an elite grappler with strong offensive wrestling and vicious ground-and-pound. His ability to mix takedowns with striking makes him unpredictable. Khabib specifically highlighted Tsarukyan’s elbows on the ground as a dangerous weapon, noting that Topuria has never faced an opponent who can combine positional control with damaging ground strikes.

The Odds According to Khabib: 80-20 in Tsarukyan’s Favor

While many analysts predict a competitive fight, Khabib went as far as assigning numerical odds to the matchup. He believes Tsarukyan has an 80% chance of winning, leaving Topuria with just 20%. That level of confidence is unusual for Khabib, who typically respects every fighter’s chances, but in this case, he sees Tsarukyan’s wrestling-heavy style as too overwhelming for Topuria’s striking-based approach.

According to Khabib, history has shown that wrestlers tend to dominate strikers when the skill gap is wide. While Topuria has shown excellent defensive grappling in his career so far, Khabib doesn’t believe he has been tested against someone with Tsarukyan’s pressure and strength.

UFC’s Dilemma: Timing the Matchup

Despite the excitement surrounding the potential fight, the UFC may not rush into booking it just yet. Chael Sonnen, a former UFC title challenger turned analyst, has said he is confident the promotion plans to make Topuria vs. Tsarukyan in the near future. However, even Tsarukyan himself has admitted he may need one more win to secure the title shot.

The UFC is also aware of the marketing dynamics. Right now, Topuria is a bigger star than Tsarukyan, largely due to his undefeated record and fan-friendly style. The promotion may want to build Tsarukyan’s profile further before putting him in a fight that could potentially end Topuria’s reign. Khabib even acknowledged this: “I know the UFC is cautious. They don’t want to throw him to Topuria too quickly. But if Arman gets a big win, where can they hide him? They won’t be able to.”

Topuria’s Perspective

For his part, Topuria has shown little interest in fighting Tsarukyan immediately. In fact, the champion recently suggested that he would rather vacate the belt than face Tsarukyan next. Whether this was gamesmanship, a negotiating tactic, or a genuine reluctance is unclear, but it has only added fuel to the debate.

Topuria’s style is built on explosive boxing, tight counters, and fearless exchanges. He has built his reputation on dismantling strikers, but against a fighter like Tsarukyan, who can drag him into deep waters with relentless wrestling, many wonder if his undefeated run could be in jeopardy.

What’s Next?

The lightweight division has rarely been short of intrigue, and this potential matchup is no different. With Topuria holding the belt and Tsarukyan climbing fast, the fight feels inevitable, even if it doesn’t happen next. For fans, it promises a clash of styles: striker versus wrestler, finesse versus pressure.

Khabib’s breakdown may seem harsh for Topuria fans, but it highlights the reality of MMA: styles make fights. While Topuria remains undefeated and dangerous, Tsarukyan represents the type of challenge he hasn’t yet faced. Whether Khabib’s 80-20 prediction proves accurate will depend on when – not if – these two finally collide inside the Octagon.

One thing is certain: if Topuria vs. Tsarukyan happens, it could define the next era of the lightweight division.