Ilia Topuria’s Biggest Gamble – Will Dana White Take the Risk?

What makes a UFC pay-per-view (PPV) truly unforgettable? It’s the perfect storm of high-profile title fights, personal rivalries, and electrifying action that keeps millions of fans on the edge of their seats.

Think of legendary clashes like Conor McGregor vs. Khabib Nurmagomedov or McGregor vs. Dustin Poirier—bouts that shattered PPV records and became instant classics. Now, a new potential superfight is on the horizon, and it involves Ilia Topuria and Islam Makhachev.

Topuria, the undefeated featherweight champion, has officially announced his move to 155 lbs, vacating his belt to chase new glory. This decision has set the stage for a monumental showdown against Makhachev. But is the UFC willing to take that gamble right away?

Michael Bisping: “If He Loses, It’s a Massive Market Opportunity Lost.”

UFC veteran Michael Bisping recently weighed in on Topuria’s transition to lightweight and the risks involved. On his podcast, the former middleweight champion analyzed the potential matchups and the business implications for the UFC.

“Islam, Arman, Charles, Justin… any single one of them would be a phenomenal fight for Ilia Topuria. But if I had to bet? I’d say Islam Makhachev vs. Ilia Topuria. Sure, Arman Tsarukyan, Charles Oliveira, or Justin Gaethje could beat Topuria. But here’s the thing—if he loses to them first, the UFC loses a massive market opportunity.”

Bisping went on to emphasize the importance of timing in fight promotions:

“If he fights Gaethje and loses, sure, he might get a title shot two or three fights later—but the hype won’t be the same.”

The UFC’s Dilemma: A Risk Worth Taking?

This is where things get tricky for Dana White and the UFC. Ilia Topuria is a massive star in the making, and the UFC is fully aware of the business potential he brings. However, throwing him into the fire too soon could backfire—one loss could derail his hype train before he even reaches his full superstar potential.

If Topuria takes a tune-up fight before facing Makhachev and loses, the UFC loses a golden marketing opportunity. But if they give him a title shot right away, they risk him getting dominated by one of the most dominant champions in lightweight history.

So, what’s the best move?

Dana White’s Stance on Makhachev’s Next Challenger

At the UFC 313 post-fight press conference, Dana White was asked about the future of the lightweight division and who would challenge Islam Makhachev next.

“You guys know there are a lot of factors that go into determining who gets a title shot—injuries, timing, where the fight would take place, and when fighters want to compete. It’s never a simple decision.”

With multiple contenders knocking on the door, White has some tough choices to make:

• Justin Gaethje just defeated Rafael Fiziev and has been demanding a title shot.
• Charles Oliveira is eager for a rematch after his loss to Makhachev at UFC 280.
• Arman Tsarukyan remains in the title picture despite pulling out of UFC 311 due to injury.
• Ilia Topuria is a wildcard entry into the division, bringing massive hype with him.

With so many potential matchups, White has to balance business and competition.

Is Justin Gaethje the frontrunner?

Among all contenders, Justin Gaethje appears to have the strongest claim for the next title shot. Fresh off his victory over Fiziev, Gaethje took to social media, stating:

“I won 3 out of my last 4, only losing in an exhibition fight. I have to fight for the belt. @danawhite I am ready.”

Gaethje is a fan favorite, known for his violent fighting style and ability to put on a show. If the UFC wants fireworks, a Gaethje vs. Makhachev fight might be the best immediate option.

But that leaves the question: Where does Topuria fit into all of this?

What’s Next for Ilia Topuria?

Ilia Topuria is in a unique position—he’s an undefeated star, a proven finisher, and now stepping into one of the toughest divisions in MMA. His best path to a title shot could depend on how the UFC wants to market him.

Possible scenarios for Topuria:

1. Instant title shot vs. Makhachev The UFC could capitalize on Topuria’s momentum and book the fight ASAP, but it’s a massive risk if he’s not ready for Makhachev’s wrestling-heavy style.
2. Take a top contender fight first. He could fight someone like Arman Tsarukyan, Justin Gaethje, or Charles Oliveira to earn his shot. However, one loss could ruin everything.
3. Wait for the division to clear up. If Makhachev fights Gaethje first, Topuria could fight another rising lightweight to test the waters.

Each path has its risks and rewards.

Final Thoughts: Should Topuria Take the Risk Now?

The Ilia Topuria vs. Islam Makhachev fight has the potential to be a massive PPV attraction, but timing is everything.

If the UFC rushes Topuria into the title fight and he loses, his hype could take a major hit. On the other hand, if he waits too long or takes another fight first, the opportunity might pass him by.

As Michael Bisping pointed out, the UFC’s biggest fear is losing market value on a fighter like Topuria. The question remains—will Dana White pull the trigger on this fight now, or will Topuria have to prove himself first?

One thing’s for sure: the lightweight division is about to get a whole lot more exciting.