Bets Flooded to Alex Pereira, But Magomed Ankalaev Emerged Victorious

The UFC 313 main event is shaping up to be one of the most anticipated fights of the year as reigning Light Heavyweight Champion Alex “Poatan” Pereira steps into the octagon to defend his title against Magomed Ankalaev. Scheduled for March 8, 2025, at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, this fight has garnered significant attention, not only because of the fighters’ skill sets but also due to the betting action leading up to the bout.

Despite being the slight betting favorite at -115, an overwhelming 84 percent of bettors have placed their money on Pereira, with only 16 percent backing Ankalaev. This massive disparity raises several questions:

• Why are so many bettors confident in Pereira?
• Does Ankalaev have a legitimate chance at an upset?
• What do the odds tell us about the fight’s potential outcome?

In this deep dive, we’ll explore the betting landscape, fighter profiles, strategies, expert predictions, and key factors that could determine the winner of this epic clash.

Betting Odds and Public Perception

The betting market for UFC 313 has been particularly intriguing. Despite Pereira’s slight favorite status, the volume of bets on him far outweighs those on Ankalaev.

Current Betting Odds (as of March 7, 2025)

• Alex Pereira: -115 (Bet $115 to win $100)
• Magomed Ankalaev: -105 (Bet $105 to win $100)

At first glance, these odds suggest an evenly matched contest, with the bookmakers giving Pereira only a slight edge. However, when we look at the betting handle distribution, we see a very different picture:

• 84 percent of bets are placed on Alex Pereira
• 16 percent of bets are placed on Magomed Ankalaev

This means that, despite the odds suggesting a close fight, public sentiment heavily favors Pereira.

But why is this happening? Let’s analyze each fighter to understand why bettors are so confident in the champion.

Fighter Profiles: Strengths, Weaknesses, and Fighting Styles

Alex “Poatan” Pereira

• Record: 10-2-0 (7 KOs)
• Height: 6’4″
• Reach: 79 inches
• Fighting Style: Elite kickboxer, knockout power
• UFC Accomplishments: Current Light Heavyweight Champion, former Middleweight Champion

Pereira has rapidly established himself as one of the most feared strikers in MMA. Known for his devastating knockout power, Pereira has finished some of the best fighters in the division with his pinpoint accuracy and striking efficiency.

Strengths

• Elite striking: one of the most technical and powerful strikers in the UFC
• Knockout power: Seven of his ten wins have come via KO
• High fight IQ: adapts well and can land fight-ending shots at any moment

Weaknesses

• Takedown defense: Has struggled against elite grapplers in the past
• Ground game limitations: His submission defense is untested at this level

Pereira’s path to victory is clear: keep the fight standing and look for the knockout.

Magomed Ankalaev

• Record: 18-1-1 (9 KOs, 1 submission)
• Height: 6’3″
• Reach: 75 inches
• Fighting Style: Well-rounded, strong wrestling and striking
• UFC Achievements: Former title challenger, unbeaten in last ten fights

Ankalaev is a more well-rounded fighter than Pereira, blending powerful striking with effective wrestling. His Sambo background gives him an advantage in grappling exchanges, and he has shown the ability to grind out victories against dangerous strikers.

Strengths

• Balanced skill set: can strike and grapple effectively
• Wrestling and clinch control can neutralize powerful strikers with takedowns
• Cardio and endurance—capable of winning long fights through control

Weaknesses

• Less explosive than Pereira—not known for quick knockouts
• Striking defense: Has been caught with clean shots in previous fights

Ankalaev’s path to victory will likely involve a grappling-heavy approach, where he forces Pereira into deep waters and avoids prolonged striking exchanges.

Why is the betting public so confident in Pereira?

Despite the tight odds, the public has overwhelmingly placed bets on Pereira (84 percent) over Ankalaev (16 percent). Here are a few reasons why:

1. Knockout Power Attracts Bettors

Casual bettors tend to favor explosive, knockout-heavy fighters. Pereira’s track record of finishing fights early and violently makes him an appealing pick for those looking for a decisive victory.

2. Recent Championship Performances

Pereira has defended his title successfully against top-ranked opponents, winning via knockout in his last three fights. This dominant run has built confidence in his ability to deliver under pressure.

3. Ankalaev’s “Less Exciting” Fighting Style

While Ankalaev is a technically sound and strategic fighter, he doesn’t always win in dramatic fashion. Many of his victories have come via decision, which isn’t as appealing to bettors seeking a quick and exciting outcome.

Path to Victory: How Can Each Fighter Win?

Alex Pereira’s Game Plan

• Keep the fight standing. Avoid Ankalaev’s takedowns at all costs
• Use his reach and precision. Land powerful shots early to set the tone
• Avoid prolonged clinches. Ankalaev will look to slow him down against the cage

Prediction if Pereira follows this plan: Pereira wins by KO in rounds one to three.

Magomed Ankalaev’s Game Plan

• Utilize wrestling and clinch control—wear Pereira down and neutralize his power
• Avoid striking exchanges. Limit exposure to Pereira’s dangerous hands
• Take the fight into the later rounds. Increase his chances of winning via decision

Prediction if Ankalaev follows this plan: Ankalaev wins via decision or submission in rounds four to five.

Final Fight Prediction: Who Will Win at UFC 313?

While the odds suggest an even fight, the betting action heavily favors Alex Pereira due to his knockout power and recent performances. However, Ankalaev remains a dangerous and well-rounded opponent who could exploit Pereira’s weaknesses if he executes the right game plan.

Expert Consensus

• 55 percent of analysts predict Pereira wins by KO
• 35 percent believe Ankalaev can secure a decision victory
• 10 percent think the fight could go either way

Official Prediction: Alex Pereira wins via knockout in Round 2.

With the fight approaching, fans, analysts, and bettors eagerly await to see if Pereira can once again deliver a highlight-reel finish or if Ankalaev will shock the world with a strategic upset.

One thing is certain—UFC 313 is set to be a blockbuster event that fight fans won’t want to miss.