Red Bull’s Dangerous Decline Concerns Rise After Disappointing First Test From Liam Lawson And Max Verstappen

Red Bull Racing entered the 2025 Formula 1 pre-season as the team to beat. With Max Verstappen aiming for another title and Liam Lawson participating in testing, expectations were high for a strong start. However, the first test session has raised serious concerns for the reigning champions.

Instead of confirming their superiority, Red Bull’s performance in testing was underwhelming. Both Verstappen and Lawson struggled, with lap times failing to impress and unexpected mechanical and aerodynamic issues surfacing. The biggest issue of all seems to be a dangerous level of performance degradation, which could impact their chances in the upcoming season.

Is Red Bull experiencing the first signs of decline after years of dominance, or can they fix their problems before the season starts? Let’s examine the key weaknesses exposed in testing.

First Testing Session: A Disappointing Start for Red Bull

Pre-season testing is crucial for teams to analyze their car’s strengths and weaknesses before the first Grand Prix. Red Bull, which has been a dominant force in Formula 1, was expected to lead the pack. Instead, testing exposed several alarming trends that could jeopardize their 2025 campaign.

Verstappen’s Struggles: Uncharacteristic Performance Issues

Max Verstappen, known for his aggressive yet precise driving, did not seem comfortable with the car’s handling. Several issues affected his performance:

Rear-end instability caused difficulty in high-speed corners
Unexpected tire degradation led to a significant drop in lap times
Reduced straight-line speed compared to Ferrari and Mercedes

These problems are not what Red Bull fans expected from the reigning world champion. Verstappen’s feedback to the team indicated that the car felt inconsistent and unpredictable, which could be a major problem during the season.

Liam Lawson’s Testing Session: A Learning Experience or a Red Flag?

Liam Lawson, participating in pre-season testing as a reserve driver, was also unable to extract competitive lap times from the car. While he is still gaining experience, his struggles are highlighted:

Lack of grip on both soft and medium tires
Difficulty managing fuel loads and race simulations
Problems adapting to Red Bull’s current aerodynamic setup

Lawson’s struggles are not entirely his fault, as even Verstappen failed to perform at the usual level. However, the lack of positive feedback from two different drivers raises serious concerns.

Red Bull’s Key Problems: A Recipe for Disaster?

One of the most concerning factors from testing was the lack of aerodynamic stability in the RB21 car. Red Bull has always been known for brilliant aerodynamics, but the 2025 car is showing signs of unpredictability, particularly in:

High-speed cornering, where the rear end appears unstable
Straight-line balance, with the car losing efficiency compared to Ferrari and Mercedes
Ground effect inconsistencies, making it difficult for drivers to maintain ideal racing lines

If Red Bull cannot refine their aerodynamic package, they risk being caught by their rivals much sooner than expected.

2. Severe Tire Degradation: A Long-Run Disaster

One of the biggest takeaways from testing was Red Bull’s uncontrollable tire degradation. Formula 1 races require careful tire management, and Red Bull’s inability to maintain performance over long runs could be a major disadvantage in 2025.

Issues observed during testing include:

Rapid overheating of soft compounds, forcing early pit stops
Poor wear distribution, leading to loss of grip in key braking zones
Comparisons with competitors showing Red Bull’s performance dropping faster

This is a serious issue, as Formula 1 teams like Ferrari and Mercedes have focused heavily on improving their tire wear. If Red Bull does not find a solution quickly, they may lose crucial races due to poor tire management.

3. Power Unit Concerns: Has Red Bull Lost Its Engine Advantage?

Red Bull’s engine performance has always been a strength, but early testing numbers indicate a potential problem with reliability and power output. Concerns include:

Lower than expected top speed, with Mercedes looking faster on straights
Slight fuel efficiency concerns, which could impact race strategies
Reliability worries, as power fluctuations were reported in certain sessions

If Red Bull is no longer the clear leader in engine performance, they could be in trouble when competing against Ferrari and Mercedes on power tracks.

4. Setup Confusion: Finding the Right Balance

One of the more unexpected issues reported from testing was the difficulty in finding an optimal setup for the car. Red Bull’s engineers were seen making constant adjustments, yet neither Verstappen nor Lawson felt comfortable.

Possible reasons for setup struggles include:

New aerodynamic regulations requiring a different balance approach
Unexpected interactions between the chassis and power unit
Data inconsistencies make it difficult to determine the best configuration

If Red Bull is struggling this much to find an ideal setup, their performance in the opening races could be highly unpredictable.

The Competition is Ready—Can Red Bull Keep Up?

While Red Bull is facing serious degradation and performance issues, their biggest rivals are showing promising progress.

Ferrari: A New Contender for the Title?

Ferrari’s pre-season testing has been strong, with both Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz posting competitive lap times. Ferrari’s strengths include:

More balanced tire wear over long runs
Higher straight-line speed compared to Red Bull
Aggressive development approach aiming for early-season victories

If Red Bull cannot fix their issues quickly, Ferrari could emerge as the biggest threat to their championship hopes.

Mercedes: Tactical Strength and Smart Upgrades

Mercedes has taken a calculated approach to 2025, focusing on:

Consistent reliability over long stints
Aerodynamic upgrades to improve high-speed efficiency
A strategic mindset for capitalizing on Red Bull’s weaknesses

If Red Bull’s performance continues to degrade, Mercedes could steal crucial points in the title race.

What Can Red Bull Do to Fix Their Problems?

With limited time before the season opener, Red Bull needs to act fast. Key solutions include:

Reassessing Their Aerodynamic Setup
- Adjusting rear downforce levels to stabilize handling
- Optimizing ground-effect performance for better cornering balance
- Testing alternative wing configurations to improve straight-line speed
Addressing Tire Degradation Issues
- Running new suspension setups to reduce wear
- Adjusting race strategies to compensate for poor tire longevity
- Improving cooling techniques to prevent overheating in high-degradation conditions
Finding a Reliable Power Output
- Enhancing engine mapping to improve fuel efficiency
- Refine gearbox calibration for smoother power delivery
- Conducting additional dyno tests to eliminate power fluctuations

Conclusion: Red Bull Must Solve Its Problems Quickly

The first pre-season test has sent a strong warning to Red Bull—they are no longer comfortably ahead of their competitors. With Verstappen and Lawson struggling, concerns about degradation, setup, and aerodynamic weaknesses could derail their championship hopes.

Red Bull has a short window to fix these issues before the first race. If they fail to respond in time, Ferrari and Mercedes could capitalize on their weaknesses, making the 2025 season one of the most competitive battles in years. The question now is—can Red Bull turn things around before it is too late?